Wednesday, December 31, 2008

chicagotribune.com

Struggle for peace

Obama has to take control of mediating Mideast conflict

By Yousef Munayyer

December 30, 2008




In Israel, it is time to be tough. Not because being tough will stop rocket fire from the Gaza Strip, but because being tough will get you elected. With elections upcoming, the incumbents have a direct advantage over the challengers because they are in the position to create, and act upon, issues of national security to prove their ability to handle these challenges. This of course proves very useful when Benjamin Netanyahu, the front-runner for prime minister, has been campaigning on a platform of security and attacking the incumbents as too soft.

The situation we see in Gaza today is one that was escalated by Israel and particularly the decision-makers in government. We have a very short-term memory when it comes to daily reports of rocket attacks so we often forget important events in sequence that brought us to this point.

Israel and Hamas were at their most peaceful state in the history of their coexistence for five months this year. During the Egyptian-brokered truce, aggressive attacks plummeted and for the first time in years, the alarm sirens indicating incoming rocket attacks had largely fallen silent.

All of this changed, however, on Nov. 4. While the world was in awe at an American election, Israel launched an aerial strike killing four people in Gaza it claimed were digging a tunnel to smuggle weapons. Yet this, the largest violation of the truce, was swept under the rug by a tsunami of U.S. election coverage. Hamas responded with rockets, and then Israel quickly reapplied a tight blockade, bringing us back to the cycle of violence.

While the world was busy with Barack Obama's historic victory, those in charge in Israel were laying the foundation of a pre-election opportunity to flex their muscles before their electorate. This is not new in Israel; in fact, it is standard practice in a country where security is such an important concern. We may remember Ariel Sharon's visit to the sacred Temple Mount, in a swarm of armed guards, right before the election in 2001. The intifada, or Palestinian uprising, which ensued, led the Israeli electorate to choose a right-wing hard-liner like Sharon over Ehud Barak.

Hanging in the balance of this election strategy are the lives of 1.5 million people in Gaza, already desperate for a normal life, and thousands more on the Israeli side who are tired of rocket attacks.

Though few are talking about it, this may be the most significant series of events in the history of the conflict. The two-state solution is on the line in the next several years because of ever-changing realities on the ground.

If President-elect Barack Obama does not take quick control of mediating the peace process after he assumes office, peace will not come during his administration and the two-state solution may effectively be dead.

Now, in this critical point in transition the players involved must align in favor of reaching an agreement and this can only happen with a unified Palestinian partner.

If peace talks fail to get off the ground during an Obama administration, we will look back at this point in time, and this important sequence of events, and realize how things could have been different. There has never been a more important time than now for American intervention in this conflict.

There is no doubt Israelis should have the right to security, just as Palestinians should have the right to security, but the current situation is leading to a lack of security for both peoples long into the future.

What Israel learned from the 33-day war with Hezbollah in 2006 was that the quickest and most efficient way to end rocket fire was armistice. Israel had that with a cease-fire with Hamas, and this can be achieved again but it will take quick and direct American involvement.

The recipe to cease-fire is simple: All cross-border attacks must cease and all blockades must end. Perhaps several months ago the Egyptians had the leverage to broker an agreement, but the situation has escalated beyond that now. It's time for the United States to step in because the long-term stakes are much greater than the short-term goals of politicians in Israel or Hamas.

Yousef Munayyer is a policy analyst for the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee.

No comments: